A 13-week cash forecast: find the tight week before it arrives

Your team has work booked, invoices are going out and the sales report looks healthy. Yet payroll and a supplier payment fall before a major customer is likely to pay. A monthly total can hide that gap. The useful question is which week needs attention, how large the gap might be and who can act before it arrives.

Build a working view of the next 13 weeks

A cash forecast tracks expected receipts and payments, rather than accounting profit. Start with thirteen weekly columns in a spreadsheet. Give each column a start date and an end date. BDC describes this rolling horizon as a practical way to monitor short-term cash and recommends refreshing it weekly.

Keep the first version simple enough for someone else to update. Use one row for each significant receipt or payment, with a category, expected date, source document and responsible person. Combine small recurring items where that does not hide a decision. Record uncertain assumptions beside the figures, rather than leaving their meaning in the owner's head.

Start from money you can actually use

Use a bank balance checked on a stated date. Identify restricted money separately. An unused credit facility is potential funding, not a cash receipt already in the bank; show any planned drawdown as a separate financing assumption. Transfers between your own included accounts must not become extra income.

For each week, calculate opening cash plus receipts minus payments to get closing cash. Carry that closing amount into the following week's opening balance. This is also the balance logic explained by business.gov.au. Use the full cash amounts that will move through the accounts; confirm tax amounts and payment dates with your accountant and avoid counting them twice.

Make receipt dates believable

Separate invoices awaiting payment from orders not yet invoiced and potential sales. For a large receipt, record what must happen first: delivery, customer acceptance, invoice approval or a confirmed payment run. An invoice due date is useful evidence, but it is not proof that the payment will arrive that day.

Ask the person closest to the customer to verify the most important dates. Do not treat every open opportunity as cash in the base forecast. For payments, include payroll, suppliers, rent, loan payments and irregular commitments such as annual subscriptions. Show an optional equipment purchase separately so the owner can see the effect of moving it.

Test one delayed payment

Consider an illustrative week with €8,000 opening cash, €12,000 expected receipts and €15,000 payments. The closing balance is €5,000: €8,000 + €12,000 − €15,000. These are invented planning assumptions, not a client result or a currency conversion.

Now move a €4,000 customer receipt to the following week. This week's receipts fall to €8,000 and closing cash falls to €1,000. Add the €4,000 to the later week; a delay moves money, whereas a lost payment removes it. Keep the original forecast and the changed version visible so the difference can be explained.

Suppose management has chosen a €3,000 minimum buffer for this example. The delayed scenario is €2,000 below it, even though the bank balance remains positive. That buffer is an illustrative internal threshold, not a universal recommendation. Set your own using the payments that cannot easily move and the uncertainty of your receipts.

Turn the lowest balance into an action

Find the lowest projected closing balance and its date. Then inspect the sequence within that week: a Monday payment and a Friday receipt may still create a temporary gap. Where timing is tight, use daily detail rather than trusting the weekly closing figure alone.

Each response needs an owner and a deadline. Confirm a disputed invoice, finish acceptance paperwork, agree any payment changes with the counterparty or revisit an optional purchase. Do not make the forecast look better by silently pushing committed payments back. If funding is needed, distinguish an approved source from a conversation that has only started.

Use a short weekly review

• Reconcile the completed week to actual bank movements and explain material differences.
• Separate timing changes from changes in amount; move delayed receipts to realistic new dates.
• Refresh assumptions for the remaining weeks and add a new thirteenth week.
• Check the lowest balance in both the base forecast and the delayed-payment scenario.
• Agree the next action, its owner and the date when progress will be checked.

Start with your largest expected receipts and unavoidable payments today. A usable forecast should end with a decision, not just a coloured spreadsheet. If you want help turning that view into a regular management routine, bring the forecast and its three largest uncertainties to a conversation with BT Management.